Brothers should stick together? Competitiveness at primary local elections in Province of Buenos Aires

Abstract

The discussion about the effects of primary election over political party divides literature among those who argue that regardless of the primary result, the votes of the losing candidate massively move later to the winner of the contest, and the ones who claim that internal disputes erode parties and coalitions which impact on loosing general election. Through a statistical model, this study finds that the greater the number of internal list, and the more competitive the primary election, the lower chances has the party to win general elections. This study analyzes local elections in municipalities of Province de Buenos Aires highlighting that primaries have effects not only on candidates’ selection but also on coalitions’ electoral performance. Findings are important to think on electoral strategies when the game has more than one turn.