From the low clergy to the Presidency of the Republic: explaining the vote for Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election

Abstract

We analyze the determinants of Jair Bolsonaro’s electoral victory in the brazilian presidential election in 2018, through the description of his political trajectory and electoral campaign, a theoretical discussion and data analysis. A quantitative technique is used for a multivariate analysis of data extracted from the 2018 Brazilian Electoral Survey. We show that the predilection for authoritarian political regimes, the antipetism, the identification with right wing ideology and evangelical religious affiliation were characteristics positively associated with the vote for Bolsonaro. This research prioritizes the contextual approach to the political phenomenon, by conditioning the theoretical discussion to the reading of the context, and its data analysis provides robust evidence on the factors that explain the transformation of a politician formerly recognized as “low clergy” into chief of the federal executive branch.