Locked from the inside: Persistence of governments of the same political orientation in Argentina between 1995 and 2015

Abstract

This study develops the first presidential forecasting model for Argentina which does not rely on election poll tracking and which can be applied before any given election. By following Lichtman and Keilis Borok (1981), the variability of seven indicators of the country’s economic, social and political situation was analyzed to check whether it correlates with the existence of a new win by the previous winner of the presidential election. A high and significant correlation between the variables, as well as the formulation of causal mechanisms that match most accounts of recent history, provides important empirical evidence to support the model. So far, the previous winner has never lost unless its competitors reached a minimum of four «keys,» which originate in the worsening of the situation of the country.