¿Réquiem para la guerra en la Región Andina? Límites al conflicto en las relaciones entre Colombia y Venezuela

Abstract

This article analyzes the conditions that fostered the pacific resolution of March 2008 Colombian-Ecuadorian crisis. I hereby sustain that five conditions contributed to a negotiated resolution of the crisis, namely: 1) high level of congruence in the Nation-State balance, 2) predominance of internal missions in the armed forces, 3) regional tradition of pacific resolution of disputes, 4) increasing level of interdependence and 5) high military difficulty to fight a war. These factors established limits to military escalation and increased the cost of fighting a war. In spite of discouraging a war, the probability of a short and focused military clash has not been totally eliminated. In order to avoid the deterioration of regional linkages and the return of rivalry conceptions, it is necessary to strengthen institutionalized mechanisms of defense and security cooperation as well as to create systems for conflict prevention.