Comparación de los efectos de las crisis económicas y financieras en la desintegración regional en la Unión Europea (2009) y Mercosur (1999-2001)

Abstract

This paper delves into Regional Organizations’ reactions to crises, exploring whether such occurrences lead to disintegration. Crisis situations pose immediate and unforeseen challenges to regional cooperation and integration. The responses to these crises vary, with potential outcomes ranging from increased cooperation to disintegration or maintenance of the status quo. To understand why organizations disintegrate or hold together after crises, we compare the 2009 Eurozone budgetary crisis with the 1999-2001 financial crisis in Mercosur. Using Most Different Systems Design, we analyze factors preventing member defection. Our findings suggest that regional powers play a crucial role in preserving bloc integrity, acting as a sufficient condition to prevent defection. This study contributes to theory consolidation by testing models across different regions and moments, offering insights into causal mechanisms of regional disintegration or cohesion.